Integrated biosecurity risk assessment models for imports (Tilletia, BMSB, QFF)

Biosecurity outcome

• A model to enable MPI to deliver a more nuanced and timely assessment of risk, allowing for a more efficient intervention points on pathways and surveillance resource allocation on a spatial level in terms of more or less intervention on pathways and surveillance.
  • The model will determine which interventions may prove the most effective on import pathways under current and potential import conditions, the dependencies between them, the uncertainty is associated with their effectiveness, and their associated costs to inform pathway risk management (obj 1) and determine where imported risks are distributed across NZ and where they are most likely to establish (obj 2)

Science outcome

• The development of probabilistic risk analysis models for pest risk assessment incorporating a range of inputs relevant to the NZ border biosecurity

Key end users/stakeholders

Implementation:  MPI project team members have a direct say in the direction of research so that outputs (models of risk pathways) are relevant and incorporated in the development of the suite of risk assessment tools used by MPI – Science & Risk Plants & Pathways (i.e. IBRAM – Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model for imports).